WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 122.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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