WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 117.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
  HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
  FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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