WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 20.0N, 110.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
  THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
  SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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