WTPQ31 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 11.9N 144.0E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 11.9N, 144.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS
  HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS
  DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
  AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL
  CYCLONE UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
  TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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