WTPQ31 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 144.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
  SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
  FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
  A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
  THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
  CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS
  CURRENT INFIRM STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48
  DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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