WTPQ31 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 2421 KONG-REY (2421)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KONG-REY IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 128.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
  LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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