WTPQ31 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2421 KONG-REY (2421)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY KONG-REY IS LOCATED AT 23.2N, 121.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
  IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA
  AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE
  SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
  LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
  THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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