WTPQ31 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TS 2421 KONG-REY (2421)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KONG-REY IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
  ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
  THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
  INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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