WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 14.6N, 130.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
  BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM
  WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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