WTPQ31 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
  ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
  WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
  VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
  CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
  TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL
  WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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