WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 118.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
  MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
  WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
  LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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