WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 115.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
  TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=