WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 21.4N, 114.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
  AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
  TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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