WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 114.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
  ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
  UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
  SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
  STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
  FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
  WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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