WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2423 TORAJI (2423)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS TORAJI IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 113.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. HOWEVER, ITS TEMPORAL
  SUSPENSION OF WEAKENESS HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
  ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
  UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=