WTPQ31 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 19.0N 132.2E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 132.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
  AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
  STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
  SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
  AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
  REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
  LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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