WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
  SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
  WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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