WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.9N 121.7E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 16.9N, 121.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
  OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
  NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
  HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
  FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
  TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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