WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 17.3N 117.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 117.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
  FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
  ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE
  TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED
  TO TS INTENSITY BY FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO TD
  INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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