WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2513 KAJIKI (2513)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KAJIKI IS LOCATED AT 17.5N, 112.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
  A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85
  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
  FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
  FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
  DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
  TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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