WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2513 KAJIKI (2513)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY KAJIKI IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 108.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
  LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
  VIET-NAM BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
  PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
  FT36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
  DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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