WTPQ31 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.7N 135.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 13.7N, 135.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
  AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX
  UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
  FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY
  BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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