WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 116.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
  IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS
  INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY
  FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
  AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT36
  DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
  FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
  BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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