WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 112.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
  FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
  WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
  BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
  MAINLAND SOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
  SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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