WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2522 HALONG (2522)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS HALONG IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 141.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
  STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
  SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
  SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
  SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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