WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 134.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
  A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
  WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
  PHILIPPINES BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
  HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
  RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
  SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
  REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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