WTPQ31 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 118.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
  SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
  UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
  TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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