WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 119.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
  AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
  UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
  IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
  INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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