WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 22.2N, 120.8E. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
  AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LAND AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
  DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH TCHP
  AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT18 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
  SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT18. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
=