WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
  MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
  VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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