WTPQ32 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 22.7N 136.0E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 136.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
  VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT
  TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND
  THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
  MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
  ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
  CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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