WTPQ32 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
  ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
  SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
  FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED
  TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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