WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
  SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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