WTPQ32 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 31.5N, 140.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
  DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
  ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
  UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW
  TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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