WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 33.5N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
  ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
  ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
  EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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