WTPQ32 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
  ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
  SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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