WTPQ32 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 40.4N, 155.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
  TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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