WTPQ32 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 41.8N, 157.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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