WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 17.1N 124.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
  THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A
  CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT18. THE
  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
  MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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