WTPQ32 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 17.1N 124.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 124.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE
  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
  DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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