WTPQ32 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.9N 115.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 115.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
  HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CURRENT
  INFIRM STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
  AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
  FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
  TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS
  INTENSITY BY FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
  FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
  DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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