WTPQ32 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.6N 160.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 160.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1008HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
  AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
  MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS.
  THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT12. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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