WTPQ32 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2424 MAN-YI (2424)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY MAN-YI IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 118.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY
  DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. INFORMATION
  ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
  BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
  DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
  SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
  SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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