WTPQ32 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.4N 143.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 14.4N, 143.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS
  89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
  CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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