WTPQ32 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 143.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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