WTPQ32 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.5N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
  THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
  AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
  DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
  LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
  FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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