WTPQ32 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 143.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION
  OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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