WTPQ32 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 145.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2
  89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
  NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
  ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
  ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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