WTPQ32 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 145.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2
  89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
  REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=