WTPQ32 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
  A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
  THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
  WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
  WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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